Stargazer Asset Management Weekly – February 8 2021

This week we look at inflation, bond yields, the dollar and the overall state of markets.

BY ERIC FILL

SAM Weekly _ February 8 2021

Other posts

C8 Currency Compass – October 2024

BY JON WEBB

A strong start from Currency Compass last month, where we called for a 50bp Fed rate cut camp but noting our currency models point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness, so any bounce is a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges. Indeed it was, with EURUSD hitting 1.12 and GBPUSD 1.34 before falling back. Stronger US data, in particular the employment report, helped cement this view, the chart below illustrates how recent US data has pushed up the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast from 2% to above 3%. Read more →

MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Blame Game – 11th April

BY JON WEBB

While many love rollercoasters, the consensus in the office is that we have aged out, proving that you really can’t please all of the people all of the time. And so it was with “Liberation Day”. For market folk, the glass was clearly half-empty and investors seemed conflicted about their “liberation”: from close April 2nd to close April 8th, the S&P500 fell around 12%. Scott Bessent seemed nonplussed, repeating some stats about the distribution of stock ownership among Americans (hint: 50% of people don’t have any). It turns out the Tree of Liberty doesn’t only need periodic infusions of the blood of patriots and tyrants: it also swallows 401k gains. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Disappointment

BY JON WEBB

The Nvidia results were eagerly awaited. This was entirely natural as Nvidia’s performance accounts for about 1/3 of the YtD gains on the S&P500. However, the results were not well received, which might be considered puzzling given Nvidia’s quarterly numbers met or beat analysts’ estimates on nearly every measure. The problem was not the numbers but what was expected: the “whisper” number. Nvidia investors have grown accustomed to blowout quarters, and these latest numbers were not blowouts. Read more →

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