Even in times of turmoil (see President Lincoln’s Thanksgiving Day Proclamation), fall is a time to give thanks. And what should we be more thankful for than the gift of shopping? Retail sales reflected “continued resilience in the American consumer” and one might think recent Fed surveys are indicative of a new sense of optimism? The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey’s headline index “shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years, and the six-month outlook showed that “firms remained optimistic about future conditions”. The Philadelphia Fed survey was not quite as ebullient in its reading of the current environment, the headline index dropping from 10.3 to -5.5 (a section headline drily noting “Most Current Indicators Soften”), but, on balance, the sense of optimism was palpable and mirrored the Empire Fed, (“Most Future Indicators Rise”) with the future activity jumping “from 36.7 to 56.6 in November, its highest level since June 2021”.
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