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Thoughts From The Divide: Little Tweaks and Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
“I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.” As we noted back in May, “one swallow does not make spring”. But if we are to follow the advice of Keynes/Samuelson, when information changes, we should adjust our conclusions. Blast! The trick is, of course, balancing the two ideas to adjust conclusions when the evidence suggests such an adjustment is appropriate: you might call it Bayesian inference. The above quote from Bostic illustrates the problem, with the Atlanta Fed head implicitly stating that he will be ignoring any hot inflation prints. Read more →

Trump and Nvidia Today, Tomorrow Brings the Fed

BY TEMATICA
The question about the economy we expect to be put to the Fed Chair Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy March 2025 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →
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