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Thoughts From The Divide: Little Tweaks and Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
“I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.” As we noted back in May, “one swallow does not make spring”. But if we are to follow the advice of Keynes/Samuelson, when information changes, we should adjust our conclusions. Blast! The trick is, of course, balancing the two ideas to adjust conclusions when the evidence suggests such an adjustment is appropriate: you might call it Bayesian inference. The above quote from Bostic illustrates the problem, with the Atlanta Fed head implicitly stating that he will be ignoring any hot inflation prints. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy September 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

MI2 for C8 – The FX Year Ahead – Turning Japanese – Feb 2024

BY JON WEBB
Japan is likely to come into increasing focus this year. With bond yields now being allowed to rise as the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control experiment comes to an end, the BoJ’s roadmap to ending NIRP (if things go to plan), the multi-decade underperformance of Japanese equities still fresh in asset allocators’ minds (despite some promising upside momentum) and a chronically weak currency, (especially on a real effective, inflation-adjusted trade-weighted basis), there is plenty of potential for disruption. Read more →
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