Other posts

Thoughts From the Divide: The (Golden) Path

BY JON WEBB
While the road to hell is paved with good intentions, it appears that the “golden path” to a soft landing (which by way of reminder is a “triumph of hope over experience”, if you ask Mr. Summers) is paved with rate cuts. In an interview earlier this week, the Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee cast another vote in favor of “adjustment cuts”, saying that “You risk the golden path if you are going to be as restrictive as we are now”. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell was quick to assure the audience during his latest interview that “today I am not going to be sending any signals, one way or the other on any particular meeting” as far as rate cuts are concerned. However, that did not prevent the Chair from referring to ol’ reliable of monetary policy, “long and variable lags”, to explain why, “if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long”. Read more →

January 18: This Week’s Thematic Reads

BY TEMATICA
If you missed out on this week's signals, we've got you covered Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Bumps and Jumps

BY JON WEBB
At the risk of sounding like we’re going soft on Jerry and his pirate crew of crack forecasters, one might almost feel bad for the folks at the Eccles building. Despite their manifest belief that current real rates are restrictive, the economic “party goers” seem to be finding it very easy to keep going with the available supplies of punch. The takeaway seems to be that it’s hard to stop a party when fiscal policy keeps adding to the punchbowl. Grannie Yellen seems to love a booze up, followed by a Chinese banquet, and if we were honest, we might admit that’s pretty much been our MO for the last 15 years Read more →
Back to all posts →