Thoughts From The Divide: Breaking up is hard to do

Posted on June 5, 2025

Friday is a Non-Farm Payroll day, and the early indications have pointed to a softer report. Private sector hiring, as reported by ADP, rose by just 37,000 in May, the lowest in more than two years. The weekly claims data added to the impression of softness in employment, hitting a seven-month high. While 247,000 claims are hardly a collapse, it might indicate less “fat” in the labour market, meaning that the Labour market doesn’t have the momentum it had in ’22. Or as Claudia Sahm put it, “Any signs of weakness in the data this week would stoke fears of a recession again. It’s too soon to see the full effects of tariffs, DOGE, or other policies on the labour market; softening now would suggest less resilience to those later effects, raising the odds of a recession.”

Substack Link:  bit.ly/3SDcdvi

Other posts

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy October 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Hopes and Dreams

BY JON WEBB
When asked for his thoughts on Tesla Inc., whose stock Chanos has previously shorted, he drew on the Cisco parallel once again. “There’s always one stock in every bull market that has that, at least that imprimatur of, I call it hopes and dreams,” he said. “Everyone can really project their hopes and dreams onto that company and then value it any way they want. And Cisco was that company, by the way, in ’99. And [now] it’s undoubtedly Tesla.” Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy October 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →
Back to all posts →