Thoughts From The Divide: Breaking up is hard to do

Friday is a Non-Farm Payroll day, and the early indications have pointed to a softer report. Private sector hiring, as reported by ADP, rose by just 37,000 in May, the lowest in more than two years. The weekly claims data added to the impression of softness in employment, hitting a seven-month high. While 247,000 claims are hardly a collapse, it might indicate less “fat” in the labour market, meaning that the Labour market doesn't have the momentum it had in '22.
BY JON WEBB

Thoughts From The Divide: Breaking up is hard to do

Posted on June 5, 2025

Friday is a Non-Farm Payroll day, and the early indications have pointed to a softer report. Private sector hiring, as reported by ADP, rose by just 37,000 in May, the lowest in more than two years. The weekly claims data added to the impression of softness in employment, hitting a seven-month high. While 247,000 claims are hardly a collapse, it might indicate less “fat” in the labour market, meaning that the Labour market doesn’t have the momentum it had in ’22. Or as Claudia Sahm put it, “Any signs of weakness in the data this week would stoke fears of a recession again. It’s too soon to see the full effects of tariffs, DOGE, or other policies on the labour market; softening now would suggest less resilience to those later effects, raising the odds of a recession.”

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