USD Pivot Lower in 2024 – MI2 for C8

MI2 currently has a bias for cyclical USD weakness as we progress into 2024, but this weakness could easily morph into an environment of secular USD decline. The early signs of USD weakness are falling into place, and with the current complacent consensus of stable FX relationships within the G4, the risk is building for a decisive break from the prevailing regime. Below, we segment our analysis to line up our skittles for a consensus-busting weak USD impulse.
BY JON WEBB

 

USD Pivot Lower in 2024 – MI2 for C8

FX Special

Focus on EURUSD and Investment Process

MI2 Partners is an independent research firm focussing on global macro developments. MI2’s top-down research provides actionable, practical conclusions for investing, trading and hedging in the major asset classes, including Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, Equity Indices and selected Commodities. Our analysis and recommendations are honed by a senior research team with decades of investment and capital market experience.

Foreign Exchange is at the heart of macro analysis and is the focus of the sample report below. It illustrates how MI2 leverages top-down analysis, flow of funds, assessment of consensus forecasts and technical analysis to inform our practical, actionable recommendations.

MI2 currently has a bias for cyclical USD weakness as we progress into 2024, but this weakness could easily morph into an environment of secular USD decline. The early signs of USD weakness are falling into place, and with the current complacent consensus of stable FX relationships within the G4, the risk is building for a decisive break from the prevailing regime. Below, we segment our analysis to line up our skittles for a consensus-busting weak USD impulse.

Highlights:

  • An unstable USD equilibrium: reserve currency status, current account, and US Exceptionalism have all aided the USD.
  • US vs EU growth differentials have been in favour of USD but that can change in 2024.
  • Interest rate differentials may narrow in G3 as US rates fall.
  • Consensus forecasts are narrowly distributed around the forward price.
  • Sentiment has shifted marginally USD negative, EUR positive.
  • Indicators including volatility analysis and speculative positioning confirm the limited positioning of market participants. Charts of technicals are coiling for a break of the status quo.
  • Commodities: perceptions could inform the potential persistence of USD weakness.

 

USD Pivot Lower in 2024 – MI2 for C8

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