In this edition of The Week Ahead, Tematica’s Chris Versace lays out the three items poised to influence the stock market and Fed rate cut timing expectations. The market is waiting for President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs he telegraphed late last week, but we’ll also be watching to see how targeted countries respond. Mid-week we have Fed Chair Powell’s latest Congressional testimony bookending the January CPI report. That could lead to a more hawkish tone from the Fed Chair and with that in mind, we’ll be following his comments on tariffs closely. Rounding out The Week Ahead, the companies reporting this week, and how we’re using their comments to update our thinking.


The Strategies Behind Our Thematic Models

  • Aging of the PopulationCapturing the demographic wave of the aging population and the changing demands it brings with it.
  • Artificial Intelligence Software, chips, and related companies that facilitate the collection and analysis of large data sets and autonomous generation of solutions given non-machine language prompts.
  • Cash Strapped ConsumersCompanies poised to benefit as consumers stretch the disposable spending dollars they do have.
  • CHIPs Act – Capturing the reshoring of the US semiconductor industry and the $52.7 billion poised to be spent on semiconductor manufacturing.
  • Cloud ComputingCompanies that provide hardware and services that enhance the cloud computing experience for users, such as co-location, security, and edge computing.
  • Core Holdings – Companies that reflect economic activity and are large enough to not get pushed around by day-to-day market trends. Low-beta, large-cap names able to better withstand economic turmoil.
  • Cybersecurity – Companies that focus on protecting against the penetration of digital networks and the theft, ransom, corruption, or destruction of data.
  • Digital Infrastructure & Connectivity Companies that are integral to the development and the buildout of the infrastructure that supports our increasingly connected world.
  • Digital Lifestyle – The companies behind our increasingly connected lives.
  • Data Privacy & Digital IdentityCompanies providing the tools and services that verify authorized users and safeguard personal data privacy.
  • EPS Diplomats – Profitable large capitalization companies proven to produce above-average EPS growth and provide investors with the benefit of multiple expansion.
  • EV Transition Capturing the transition to EVs and related infrastructure from combustion engine vehicles.
  • Guilty PleasureCompanies that produce/provide food and drink products that consumers tend to enjoy regardless of the economic environment and potential long-term health hazards associated with excessive consumption.
  • Homebuilding & Materials – Ranging from homebuilders to key building product companies that serve the housing market, this model looks to capture the rising demand for housing, one that should benefit as the Fed returns monetary policy to more normalized levels.
  • Market Hedge ModelThis basket of daily reset swap-based broad market inverse ETFs protects in the face of market pullbacks, overbought market technicals, and other drivers of market volatility.
  • Nuclear Energy & UraniumCompanies that either build and maintain nuclear power plants or are involved in the production of uranium.
  • Luxury Buying BoomTapping into aspirational buying and affluent buyers amid rising global wealth.
  • Rebuilding AmericaTurning the focused spending on rebuilding US infrastructure into revenue and profits.
  • Safety & SecurityTargeted exposure to companies that provide goods and services primarily to the Defense and security sectors of the economy.
  • Space EconomyCompanies that focus on the launch and operation of satellite networks.

The strategies Behind Our Dividend Income Models

  • Monthly Dividend Model – Pretty much what the name indicates – this model invests in companies that pay monthly dividends to shareholders.
  • ETF Dividend Model – High-yielding ETFs that provide a range of exposures from domestic equities, international equities, emerging market equities, MLPS, and REITs.
  • ETF Enhanced Dividend Model – A group of high-yielding ETFs that utilize options to enhance yield through collecting option income.

Don’t be a stranger

Thanks for reading and if you have a suggestion for an article or book we should read, or a stream we should catch, email us at info@tematicaresearch.com. The same email works if you want to know more about our thematic and targeted exposure models listed above.

Other posts

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy October 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

C8 Bulletin: MI2 Joins C8 Studio

BY JON WEBB
The C8 Bulletin is back after a summer break, and we are delighted to announce that Macro Intelligence 2 Partners have added their Macro Alpha index to C8 Studio.  The Macro Alpha strategy is deeply rooted in MI2's macroeconomic insights. These directional strategies encompass a broad range of asset classes. The strategy aims to optimize risk-adjusted returns by dynamically-adjusting portfolios based on changing macroeconomic conditions. Taking three of our Global Macro contributers (including MI2), combining using our proprietary Tactical Asset Allocation, would have produced a 24% annual gain with 11% volatility and, notably, a 40% negative correlation to the S&P over the past two years. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Regrets

BY JON WEBB
With the Fed in blackout, the market has been left to its own devices to digest this week’s onslaught of economic data. The inflation data was particularly indigestible. CPI numbers came in hotter than expectations, with both Core and Headline higher than forecasts on a YoY basis at 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively: only slightly worse than expected, but worse than expected. The market also had to deal with PPI that was substantially hotter than expected: the month on month came in at 0.6%, double the consensus forecast. Under the surface, goods inflation appeared to once again be rearing its head, accounting for “about two-thirds of the rise in the headline PPI”, courtesy of “a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the biggest increase since August 2023”. (The Houthis are not helping). While the Fed may have taken a temporary vow of silence, Yellen is under no such constraint. Speaking in an interview on Fox, the Treasury secretary said, “I regret saying it, [inflation,] was transitory”, following up with the jab that “I think transitory means a few weeks or months to most people” (how long is a piece of string? To be fair, predicting inflation is, apparently, tricky: “there are clear limitations to how far into the future we can forecast inflation”). Read more →
Back to all posts →