Subscribers will not have been surprised by the return of the tariff monster. In our June Research Dossier, “When Fiscal Dominance Met De-Globalization” we wrote, In essence, Trump’s team decided that the correct sequencing involved getting the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) deal across the line before subsequently circling back to tariffs. Doing it in this order prevents Congress from tying support for the budget to tariff special pleading, giving the Trump team much more freedom of manoeuvre. Moreover, the massive fiscal stimulus (CBO) implicit in the BBB presents an implicit case for budget hawks to reverse some of the fiscal damage with tariffs.”
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