MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Blame Game – 11th April

While many love rollercoasters, the consensus in the office is that we have aged out, proving that you really can’t please all of the people all of the time. And so it was with “Liberation Day”. For market folk, the glass was clearly half-empty and investors seemed conflicted about their “liberation”: from close April 2nd to close April 8th, the S&P500 fell around 12%. Scott Bessent seemed nonplussed, repeating some stats about the distribution of stock ownership among Americans (hint: 50% of people don’t have any). It turns out the Tree of Liberty doesn’t only need periodic infusions of the blood of patriots and tyrants: it also swallows 401k gains.
BY JON WEBB

While many love rollercoasters, the consensus in the office is that we have aged out, proving that you really can’t please all of the people all of the time. And so it was with “Liberation Day”. For market folk, the glass was clearly half-empty and investors seemed conflicted about their “liberation”: from close April 2nd to close April 8th, the S&P500 fell around 12%. Scott Bessent seemed nonplussed, repeating some stats about the distribution of stock ownership among Americans (hint: 50% of people don’t have any).

It turns out the Tree of Liberty doesn’t only need periodic infusions of the blood of patriots and tyrants: it also swallows 401k gains. However, while equities had obvious reservations regarding Trump’s tariff policy, bonds seemed pretty relaxed about it all. Admittedly, the curve mostly bull-steepened, which does suggests some concerns about recession. But overall, things had seemed pretty happy in bond land, right up until Tuesday, when the 3-year year auction didn’t go as well as hoped. It turns out tariffs might have collateral effects on global capital flows.

Substack Link; https://open.substack.com/pub/mi2partners/p/thoughts-from-the-divide-the-blame?r=1tabqm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Other posts

S&P 500 Nears Overbought, Fed Heads & Inflation on Deck

BY TEMATICA
Equity futures point to a down market open later this morning,… Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Friction

BY JON WEBB
If you’re wondering what the crashing sound is in the background, it’s the bull in the China shop discussed last week as the Trump Administration works up a full head of steam. Will it go through with 25% tariffs on the US’s neighbors? Is there going to be a giant sucking sound in some parts of the economy courtesy of a potential funding freeze on federal grants and loans? Will there be a squeeze in citrus prices due to missing workers in California? The age-old shoulder shrug of “time will tell” certainly applies, but some people aren’t taking the uncertainty sitting down. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: High Times and Happy Endings

BY JON WEBB
“I think it was the right decision, and I think it should send a signal that we, that we’re committed to coming up with a good outcome here” There is no verse in scripture that says “blessed be the dovish, for they shall fatten the sacred bull”. More’s the pity, because it would have been apt. James Macintosh seems to have noticed the same, but framed it slightly differently. Nothing says I love you to asset markets more than Fed rate cuts: the original PCA factor. And to be fair, the admiration appears to be mutual: Powell loves markets and markets love Powell. It’s nice to get positive feedback and it’s not like JP had to drag everyone screaming and kicking. Read more →
Back to all posts →