MI2 Partners

Apr 04, 2025

“The market could have certainty that this is the number, barring retaliation”

There’s no getting around this week’s elephant in the room: Liberation Day, has turned out to be quite the volatility extravaganza. As equities puked (with the biggest one-day losses since 2020) and bonds went bid, analysts and commentators were furiously working to discover what exactly was behind the “reciprocal tariffs”. The official response, per the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, was that they were “calculated as the tariff necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners”, taking into account “a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing”, some numbers sleuths had a more direct explanation, “they took the trade deficit the US has with each country and divided it by our imports from that country”.

SUBSTACK LINK TO ENTIRE PIECE: (20) Thoughts From The Divide: Grief – by MI2 Partners

Other posts

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Breaking up is hard to do

BY JON WEBB
Friday is a Non-Farm Payroll day, and the early indications have pointed to a softer report. Private sector hiring, as reported by ADP, rose by just 37,000 in May, the lowest in more than two years. The weekly claims data added to the impression of softness in employment, hitting a seven-month high. While 247,000 claims are hardly a collapse, it might indicate less “fat” in the labour market, meaning that the Labour market doesn't have the momentum it had in '22. Read more →

MI2 Partners – Thoughts From The Divide: Spectacle

BY JON WEBB
Another week into Trump 2.0 and you’d be forgiven for starting to tune out some of the news around the administration. After all, nothing screams kabuki more than touting “yuge” concessions from the Canadian and Mexican governments that were already in the works… Admittedly it’s two birds with one stone (that was going to be thrown anyway) for the US’s neighbors, but it does make it hard to take the threat of tariffs seriously. That being said, while some of the spectacle is certainly theater, like a bullfight it does come with horns as markets and political actors react to the latest news. Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy August 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →
Back to all posts →