MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Rules and Guidelines

In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view.
BY JON WEBB

MI2 Partners

Mar 06, 2025

“Whatever it takes must now also apply to our defense”

In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view. We all knew that “All is fair in love and war” but the Bund market can testify to how jarring it is when we are confronted with a stark case of “needs must when the devil drives, and the consequences be damned”.

Substack Link:  https://open.substack.com/pub/mi2partners/p/thoughts-from-the-divide-rules-and?r=1tabqm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Hold On Tight

BY JON WEBB
“It’s obvious that there’s going to be stress and losses”. The comment is from Janet Yellen’s comments this week and comes from the discussion of the ongoing CRE dumpster fire. Stress and losses aside, the Treasury Secretary was unruffled, following up with the comment, “I hope and believe that this will not end up being a systemic risk to the banking system.” Yellen did admit that size matters. While “The exposure of the largest banks is quite low,… there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments” Read more →

MI2: Forecasting A Seismic Move in Markets and the Global Economy

BY JON WEBB
At the start of the year, we watched with growing concern as U.S. markets soared to extremes, seemingly indifferent to economic and geopolitical realities.  The rally wasn’t driven by fundamentals but by an endless stream of hyperbolic adjectives and increasingly outlandish claims of quick fortunes to be made. Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin: US Debt Limit Dynamics

BY SCOTT DOUGLASS
Gauging the Impact of US Debt Limit Dynamics Read more →
Back to all posts →