The Dynamic Allocation Strategy equity weighting remains above benchmark.

Two-thirds of the top-level indicators favor equities over fixed income.

U.S. Large-Caps, U.S. Value, International Developed, and U.S. Growth received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202402051

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Know when to Fold‘Em

BY JON WEBB
President Trump told us that the U.S. would get "a total of 55% tariffs" with China's tariffs set at 10%, adding that "Full magnets and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to”. A Chinese spokesman was more reserved. Lutnick referred to the agreement as a "handshake for a framework" which didn’t seem entirely consistent with Trump’s assessment. Usually, in these matters the best way of telling what happened is to look at the US-listed Rare Earth miners – MP Materials fell 8% yesterday, but was up 14% today, which might suggests that the market the market remains skeptical about China resuming rare earth supplies. Read more →

Multiple Data Points to Go Before a Santa Claus Rally

BY TEMATICA
The Fed's next meeting, updated economic projections, Retail Sales and more Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Little Tweaks and Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
“I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.” As we noted back in May, “one swallow does not make spring”. But if we are to follow the advice of Keynes/Samuelson, when information changes, we should adjust our conclusions. Blast! The trick is, of course, balancing the two ideas to adjust conclusions when the evidence suggests such an adjustment is appropriate: you might call it Bayesian inference. The above quote from Bostic illustrates the problem, with the Atlanta Fed head implicitly stating that he will be ignoring any hot inflation prints. Read more →
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