The Dynamic Allocation Strategy’s allocation to equities remains near 100%.

All six top-level indicators in the model (relative strength, participation, leading economic indicators, shipping rates, manufacturing, and central banks) favor equities over fixed income. However, the Baltic Dry Index and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) breadth indicators have deteriorated over recent weeks.

Within the equities decision, U.S. Large-Cap, U.S. Value, and U.S. Small-Caps received the largest weightings. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202106021

Other posts

Thoughts from the Divide: Which Way Is Up?

BY JON WEBB
Trying to understand the Global Economic Impacts of Trump’s Second Term. So far, he has signed more executive orders on his first day than the last ten presidents combined. As of this writing in the middle of the Friday trading day, US markets initially seem impressed, with the S&P reaching an all-time high earlier this week and the Nasdaq 100 and Solactive 200 both higher. There is a bit of pullback today, but we are higher for the week overall. And US markets aren’t alone, Japanese and European equities have had their best performance this year. Maybe Japan and Europe aren’t going to be affected by the Trump tariffs? Last time we looked, they made a whole lot of automobiles, but what do we know? Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide:  The First Cut

BY JON WEBB
In love, the first cut may be the deepest (as per Rod Stewart, Sheryl Crow, and others). But for the Fed’s Waller, the first cut is to be done “methodically and carefully”. Tacky musical references aside, the Fed Governor explained in his speech earlier this week that “the data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024”. With inflation seemingly on the right path for reaching the FOMC’s “price-stability goal”, Waller was yet another confirmation of the adjustment cut thesis, explaining in his conclusion, “The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real policy rate at an appropriate level of tightness.” Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – September 2024

BY JON WEBB
We are firmly in the 50bp rate cut camp – if  the Fed is worried about employment, they need to get ahead of the curve.  This is likely to put further pressure on the USD in the near term.  USDJPY has hit its downside target (see below) so the benefit is more likely to accrue to the EUR and GBP.  We also see the BoJ on hold this week, which adds weight to this view.  However, we note our systematic models still point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness over time, so any bounce may prove a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.  Read more →
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