NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy June 2021 Update

The Dynamic Allocation Strategy’s allocation to equities remains near 100%.

All six top-level indicators in the model (relative strength, participation, leading economic indicators, shipping rates, manufacturing, and central banks) favor equities over fixed income. However, the Baltic Dry Index and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) breadth indicators have deteriorated over recent weeks.

Within the equities decision, U.S. Large-Cap, U.S. Value, and U.S. Small-Caps received the largest weightings. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202106021

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy December 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN

Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Door is Wide Open

BY JON WEBB

Last week, we flagged Bill Dudley’s abrupt change of mind: he now advocates immediate rate cuts. One might be forgiven for suspecting Bill had spent the week lobbying his old colleagues because the July 31st FOMC statement, and J Powell’s subsequent presser gave rates markets quite the boost. Of course, there were the usual Powell caveats: “If we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly - or more or less in line with expectations - growth remains reasonably strong, and the labor market remains consistent with its current condition, then I would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting”. But judging from SOFR pricing, the market took Powell’s caveats as mere teasing. Powell’s presser comments suggested maybe 50bps of cuts by year-end, but Dec 25 SOFR pricing suggests at least 75bps. Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy May 2024 Update