NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy June 2022 Update

Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update

BY BRIAN SANBORN

The Dynamic Allocation Strategy’s equity allocation is near 70%.

Four of the six top-level indicators in the model (relative strength, PMI breadth, Baltic Dry Index and central banks) favor equities over fixed income and cash.

Non-U.S. Developed, U.S. Value, U.S. Small-Caps, and U.S. Large-Caps received the largest weightings. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202206021

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NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy October 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN

The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Vital Few

BY JON WEBB

Winston Churchill said the above line in a speech delivered in 1940 to the House of Commons, noting in his survey of the war efforts that “The gratitude of every home in our Island… goes out to the British airmen who, undaunted by odds, unwearied in their constant challenge and mortal danger are turning the tide of the world war”. While we don’t want to focus this week on the “psalm of swords” (though we would note Denmark’s government may have broken the first rule of Fight Club in recommending its citizens stock up on water, food, medicine, and iodine tablets!), the British Bulldog’s words are particularly apt at the moment given so much of the economic landscape is dependent on “the vital few”. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Adjustments

BY JON WEBB

Last week’s excitement in bond markets came courtesy of Governor Waller offering a mechanical rationale for rate cuts. Simply, “If inflation goes down, you would lower the policy rate.” This came, of course, in the context of warnings about financial conditions and other caveats, but as is so often the case, what the markets heard was “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”. That doesn’t mean that we disagree with the market’s read of where the Fed’s head is. Fed Governors don’t make too many boo-boos with their messaging, and when they do, it’s often an error of timing rather than content. The market has now priced cuts down to “around 4% by the end of 2024” and while that seems perhaps overdoing the enthusiasm a tad, we suspect that the market has gotten the gist about right. Read more →

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