The Dynamic Allocation Strategy equity weighting remains above benchmark.

The top-level indicators are split between equities and fixed income.

U.S. Large-Caps, non-U.S. Developed, U.S. Value, and U.S. Growth received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202309041

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Regrets

BY JON WEBB
With the Fed in blackout, the market has been left to its own devices to digest this week’s onslaught of economic data. The inflation data was particularly indigestible. CPI numbers came in hotter than expectations, with both Core and Headline higher than forecasts on a YoY basis at 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively: only slightly worse than expected, but worse than expected. The market also had to deal with PPI that was substantially hotter than expected: the month on month came in at 0.6%, double the consensus forecast. Under the surface, goods inflation appeared to once again be rearing its head, accounting for “about two-thirds of the rise in the headline PPI”, courtesy of “a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the biggest increase since August 2023”. (The Houthis are not helping). While the Fed may have taken a temporary vow of silence, Yellen is under no such constraint. Speaking in an interview on Fox, the Treasury secretary said, “I regret saying it, [inflation,] was transitory”, following up with the jab that “I think transitory means a few weeks or months to most people” (how long is a piece of string? To be fair, predicting inflation is, apparently, tricky: “there are clear limitations to how far into the future we can forecast inflation”). Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Signs of Life

BY JON WEBB
For those of us who regularly follow the “wonksphere” on social media, it’s been hard to ignore the pushback against the doom and gloom that economic sentiment surveys have consistently reported. Commentators like Stancil and Sahm have bitterly complained about the disconnect between the public’s negative perceptions relative to the hard economic data, which is ostensibly pretty good. In this, they have been carrying water for policymakers like Lael Brainard, who have attempted to burnish the Administration’s economic achievements to push back against the negative perception of the economy. The most obvious of those achievements is the decline in inflation – see, we told you it was transitory! Read more →

C8 Weekly; China Liberalisation Coincides with C8 China Futures Access Launch

BY ROBERT MINIKIN
Over the month since our C8 Weekly Bulletin highlighted early signs of an opening up of the Chinese economy, the liberalisation steps have gathered new momentum. Against this backdrop, the timing may be propitious for Cirdan Capital's launch today of the C8 China Futures Access certificate. Read more →
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