NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy January 2021 Update
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy entered the month with aggressive positioning. Both Emerging Markets and U.S. High Yield received large overweight allocations. None of EM's macro, fundamental, technical, or behavioral indicators were bearish at the start of the month. Click the link below to read more about the strategy's positioning.
While the Whitehouse may have successfully avoided putting its foot in its mouth on inflation this year (We hope everyone stateside had a good Independence day), the topic remains at top of mind for more than just the bean counters, as policymakers and consumers alike grapple with a new version of Whitney Houston’s question, “How will I know if inflation is over?”. The last few weeks haven’t offered very clear guidance. CPI was cooler than expected, but PPI was above expectations. Both the ISM Manufacturing and Services reports saw strong price readings, but there were other signs of a retreat in demand.
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Thoughts From the Divide: The First Cut
BY JON WEBB
In love, the first cut may be the deepest (as per Rod Stewart, Sheryl Crow, and others). But for the Fed’s Waller, the first cut is to be done “methodically and carefully”. Tacky musical references aside, the Fed Governor explained in his speech earlier this week that “the data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024”. With inflation seemingly on the right path for reaching the FOMC’s “price-stability goal”, Waller was yet another confirmation of the adjustment cut thesis, explaining in his conclusion, “The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real policy rate at an appropriate level of tightness.”
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C8 Weekly Bulletin – “Hope” is not an investment strategy
BY ROBERT MINIKIN
Given so much investor focus on macro-drivers, we are pleased that IVI Capital, the global macro hedge fund, have provided us with a new update on their market outlook. The IVI Capital Global Macro Index is a daily, futures-only strategy and C8 Studio shows the index up 24.0% so far this year.
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