Entering May, the fixed income allocation strategy’s sector positioning favors an inflationary environment. The model is overweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. High Yield, and International Investment Grade. The model is underweight U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and Emerging Market bonds.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202405031

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Particularly Fluid

BY JON WEBB
Now a week out from the Fed making it clear that the squeeze of lower growth isn’t worth the juice of bringing inflation back to (not toward, Jerry!) 2%, Mohamed El-Erian summed up the state of play nicely in a recent article for the FT. The Queens’ College president noted that, “It is not often that you see a reputable central bank revise up its inflation and growth projections and yet strengthen a dovish tilt to its policy stance. Yet that is what happened in Washington last week when the Federal Reserve raised those projections up a notch and yet delivered two consequential signals – a willingness to tolerate higher inflation for longer and an openness to slow the ongoing reduction in its balance sheet.” Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy June 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide: Attribution

BY JON WEBB
In April of last year, Huw Pill caught flack for saying that Brits “need to accept that they’re worse off”. This was followed by John Authers coming to the defense of the pilloried BoE chief economist. As we wrote, Authers noted that the comments were taken out of context and explained that the BoE’s Chief Economist was describing how “after a few external shocks, inflation becomes a collective action problem” where “ideally everyone would take a share of the hit, and then they can move on. Human nature isn’t like that, and as a result, economics isn’t like that”. Now, roughly a year later, the BoE’s Catherine Mann has picked up Mr. Authers’ baton. It turns out that people who can maintain their standard of living will tend to do just that! Bemoaning the “challenge” of bringing inflation back to target, Mann said there was “a lack of consumer discipline” to rein in businesses’ pricing power, Read more →
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