Entering October, the fixed income allocation strategy did not rebalance. Emerging Market bonds, U.S. High Yield, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities remain above benchmark weight. International Investment Grade, U.S. Floating Rate Notes, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities remain below benchmark weight.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202410041

Other posts

MI2: Forecasting A Seismic Move in Markets and the Global Economy

BY JON WEBB
At the start of the year, we watched with growing concern as U.S. markets soared to extremes, seemingly indifferent to economic and geopolitical realities.  The rally wasn’t driven by fundamentals but by an endless stream of hyperbolic adjectives and increasingly outlandish claims of quick fortunes to be made. Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – “Don’t be a PANICAN” Pres Trump – April 2025

BY JON WEBB
After the tariff announcement, there was an initial USD drop on the risk that the US finds itself isolated, then a flight to the USD on risk aversion.  Interestingly, our FX models, which have been bearish on the USD since the start of January, are broadly positive USD for April.  In particular, reversing to short positions in AUD and NZD, which as commodity producers are most impacted by increasing recession risks. In the medium term, the USD remains vulnerable, with a weaker USD seemingly a policy goal for the Administration, but, as the shock of the tariff announcements work through the markets, the USD can have a period of strength first. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Hold On Tight

BY JON WEBB
“It’s obvious that there’s going to be stress and losses”. The comment is from Janet Yellen’s comments this week and comes from the discussion of the ongoing CRE dumpster fire. Stress and losses aside, the Treasury Secretary was unruffled, following up with the comment, “I hope and believe that this will not end up being a systemic risk to the banking system.” Yellen did admit that size matters. While “The exposure of the largest banks is quite low,… there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments” Read more →
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