A lot now depends on whether the markets are right about nCoV or not. A meaningful deterioration of the situation could bring a VaR shock for stocks while a quick recovery could challenge the bond markets.
BY ERIC FILL
This week we look at global growth prospects and how meaningful the disconnect between the financial and real economy has become.
Thoughts From The Divide: An Inevitable Recession? –Surprise! (An Interview)
BY JON WEBB
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide newsletter, we’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin. So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they're on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we'd all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous. Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market's optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider.
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Thoughts From The Divide: Identifying Ducks
BY JON WEBB
While we may have missed getting out our Thoughts From The Divide year-in-review piece before the new year (mea maxima culpa), we did manage to spend some time going through our “best of” and “greatest hits” in anticipation of the changing of the calendar. As usual, there were some repeated themes and tropes, but at the highest level, what struck us was that last year seemed very much governed by the timeless question from the underrated philosopher of science, Whitney Houston: “How will I know?” (closely followed by her observation that “crack is whack”)
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NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy October 2023 Update
BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
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