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C8 Weekly Bulletin: Central banks meet amid forecast failures

BY ROBERT MINIKIN
Welcome to our first issue of the C8 Weekly Bulletin. With many years of market experience, we at C8 see real benefits from having a concise overview of key economic and policy developments, whatever the specific investment approach. We are happy to share this overview with our clients and partners, and, where appropriate, highlight indices on C8 Studio which resonate with the current market environment. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy June 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Regrets

BY JON WEBB
With the Fed in blackout, the market has been left to its own devices to digest this week’s onslaught of economic data. The inflation data was particularly indigestible. CPI numbers came in hotter than expectations, with both Core and Headline higher than forecasts on a YoY basis at 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively: only slightly worse than expected, but worse than expected. The market also had to deal with PPI that was substantially hotter than expected: the month on month came in at 0.6%, double the consensus forecast. Under the surface, goods inflation appeared to once again be rearing its head, accounting for “about two-thirds of the rise in the headline PPI”, courtesy of “a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the biggest increase since August 2023”. (The Houthis are not helping). While the Fed may have taken a temporary vow of silence, Yellen is under no such constraint. Speaking in an interview on Fox, the Treasury secretary said, “I regret saying it, [inflation,] was transitory”, following up with the jab that “I think transitory means a few weeks or months to most people” (how long is a piece of string? To be fair, predicting inflation is, apparently, tricky: “there are clear limitations to how far into the future we can forecast inflation”). Read more →
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