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Thoughts From The Divide: Regrets

BY JON WEBB
With the Fed in blackout, the market has been left to its own devices to digest this week’s onslaught of economic data. The inflation data was particularly indigestible. CPI numbers came in hotter than expectations, with both Core and Headline higher than forecasts on a YoY basis at 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively: only slightly worse than expected, but worse than expected. The market also had to deal with PPI that was substantially hotter than expected: the month on month came in at 0.6%, double the consensus forecast. Under the surface, goods inflation appeared to once again be rearing its head, accounting for “about two-thirds of the rise in the headline PPI”, courtesy of “a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the biggest increase since August 2023”. (The Houthis are not helping). While the Fed may have taken a temporary vow of silence, Yellen is under no such constraint. Speaking in an interview on Fox, the Treasury secretary said, “I regret saying it, [inflation,] was transitory”, following up with the jab that “I think transitory means a few weeks or months to most people” (how long is a piece of string? To be fair, predicting inflation is, apparently, tricky: “there are clear limitations to how far into the future we can forecast inflation”). Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy April 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Europe performs well in ‘long only’ recovery

BY ROBERT MINIKIN
The new calendar year has begun with an explosive extension of the 'long only' asset rally which has been underway since last October’s Fed signal of smaller rate hikes. The positive case for European asset markets specifically been reinforced by a new slide in regional natural prices – to levels last seen ahead of the Ukraine invasion. In this Weekly Bulletin, we take a look at how investors can build European asset market exposure on the C8 platform. Read more →
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