Other posts

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy November 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Reversals of Fortune

BY JON WEBB
Last week’s TFTD (“Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold”) referenced Goldilocks to illustrate the tightrope US markets were walking: an economy slow enough to keep bond bulls happy, but not so slow as might spook equity bulls. This week, we continue the bear theme, courtesy of Ernie Tedeschi, and what might be taken as a public service announcement from the BLS, reminding both policymakers and the investing public of the dangers associated with “rear-view mirror driving”. The BLS benchmark revision is usually too wonky to attract press attention. But this is an election year, so naturally the BLS misplacing 818k jobs was an irresistible opportunity for conspiracy theorizing on the platform formerly called “Twitter”. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Tricks

BY JON WEBB
Perhaps it’s just us, but as the spooky season returns and jack-o-lanterns bedeck porches, we notice that markets and commentators also seem a bit skittish. Maybe it’s the looming election, or perhaps the geopolitical horror shows, but folk seem surprisingly easy to spook. Case in point was the hullabaloo around the $44bn jump in US (government) debt. The hue and cry of folk such as ZeroHedge were enough to get more mainstream interest, including the owner of X and a son of FP Trump, to take notice. The jump is seasonal, as Constan and others pointed out, rather than some ghoulish trick, but of course it’s easy to make fun of those who took fright. But perhaps this misses the point about horror movies. Some argue that the genre works for some because it allows them to push their boundaries and learn the limits of their fears. If that describes you, we recommend reading the CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook. For others, referred to as “dark copers”, the appeal of horror movies might lie in “anxiety or fear that they’re feeling in their life, and they use scary genres like horror to kind of work through those feelings”. Read more →
Back to all posts →