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Thoughts From The Divide: If Then

BY JON WEBB
With another “most important Fed meeting of our lifetime” squarely in the rearview, and the first round of knee-jerk market moves pass to the side mirrors, it’s worth reflecting a little on the Fed Chair Powell’s “works”. The “biggest” move was the announced tapering of treasuries QT to roughly $25b from the previous rate of $60b of run off a month, but beyond that Fed confidence was conspicuous by its absence. The Chairman stated as much, admitting that “the data have not given us that greater confidence” that inflation was moving toward the 2% goal that Powell indicated necessary (how long is a piece of string?) for cuts. Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – October 2024

BY JON WEBB
A strong start from Currency Compass last month, where we called for a 50bp Fed rate cut camp but noting our currency models point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness, so any bounce is a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.  Indeed it was, with EURUSD hitting 1.12 and GBPUSD 1.34 before falling back.  Stronger US data, in particular the employment report, helped cement this view, the chart below illustrates  how recent US data has pushed up the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast from 2% to above 3%. Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy April 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →
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